@Article{BettsJKKKWAA:2018:SuPrRe,
author = "Betts, Richard A. and Jones, Chris D. and Knight, Jeff R. and
Keeling, Ralph F. and Kennedy, John J. and Wiltshire, Andrew J.
and Andrew, Robbie M. and Arag{\~a}o, Luiz Eduardo Oliveira e
Cruz de",
affiliation = "{Met Office Hadley Centre} and {Met Office Hadley Centre} and {Met
Office Hadley Centre} and {University of California San Diego} and
{Met Office Hadley Centre} and {Met Office Hadley Centre} and
{CICERO Center for International Climate Research} and {Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
title = "A successful prediction of the record CO2 rise associated with the
2015/2016 El Nino",
journal = "Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological
Sciences",
year = "2018",
volume = "373",
number = "1760",
pages = "e20170301",
month = "nov.",
keywords = "El Nino, carbon dioxide rise, Mauna Loa, seasonal forecast,
terrestrial biosphere, emissions.",
abstract = "In early 2016, we predicted that the annual rise in carbon dioxide
concentration at Mauna Loa would be the largest on record. Our
forecast used a statistical relationship between observed and
forecast sea surface temperatures in the Nino 3.4 region and the
annual CO2 rise. Here, we provide a formal verification of that
forecast. The observed rise of 3.4 ppm relative to 2015 was within
the forecast range of 3.15 +/- 0.53 ppm, so the prediction was
successful. A global terrestrial biosphere model supports the
expectation that the El Nino weakened the tropical land carbon
sink. We estimate that the El Nino contributed approximately 25%
to the record rise in CO2, with 75% due to anthropogenic
emissions. The 2015/2016 CO2 rise was greater than that following
the previous large El Nino in 1997/1998, because anthropogenic
emissions had increased. We had also correctly predicted that 2016
would be the first year with monthly mean CO2 above 400 ppm all
year round. We now estimate that atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa
would have remained above 400 ppm all year round in 2016 even if
the El Nino had not occurred, contrary to our previous
expectations based on a simple extrapolation of previous trends.",
doi = "10.1098/rstb.2017.0301",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2017.0301",
issn = "1552-2814",
language = "en",
targetfile = "betts_successful.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "27 abr. 2024"
}